China. A positive outlook at last.
Tuesday, 04 November 2014 | 12:49 am
The China A share market surged last week. It is time to reiterate my optimistic appraisal of the China market. It is not too late. Back in July, we noted that China equities were underowned. China equities were trading cheap. China equities had been in a 6 year bear market. This was most likely the
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Proper ECB QE.
Friday, 31 October 2014 | 7:52 am
ECB QE: QE is not just quantitative, it is qualitative. Until underwriting standards are dropped, credit creation in the private sector Eurozone will be moribund. How can the ECB get it going again? Purchasing sovereign bonds will do nothing more than flatten term structures and tighten sovereign CDS spreads making it cheaper for governments to
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Fed Funding Treasury
Tuesday, 23 September 2014 | 4:30 am
The current interest expense on public debt of the US treasury presents an interesting picture. Given the current term structure, 2 year treasury FRN’s are an extremely attractive means of financing. They trade at some 4 basis points over 3 month T bills, which trade at about a basis point. Assuming that the 3 month
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Global Macro: Deglobalization, Inequality and Country Risk Premia
Monday, 22 September 2014 | 12:25 am
Globalization and the opening of trade and capital between countries led to a reduction in income and wealth inequality between countries. The mobility of financial and intellectual capital also led to a widening of inequality within each country. Since the global financial crisis of 2008, countries have had to reexamine their economic and commercial models.
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Policy Fatigue in Europe
Thursday, 18 September 2014 | 11:33 pm
There is policy fatigue in Europe. The recent LTRO has had poor take up, a mere 83 billion eur compared to 290 billion at the first 3 year LTRO. The first LTRO allowed banks in the euro area to do something they had not been able to before, to trade out of their foreign
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