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2018 Market Volatility. Where Do We Go From Here.

Recent market action Is there a fundamental weakness? Inflation QE dependency Market expectations over next 12 months Recent market action: I would never advise anyone to look at market movements on a daily basis. At these time frames what we observe is noise and not signal. With this caveat, let’s have a look at what
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Why Is The USD So Weak?

The USD has been weak all 2017. In early 2018 its weakness has worsened acutely. With the US economy in good health and printing growth numbers like 2.6% annualized in Q4 2017 and with interest rates rising, its difficult to understand why the USD is weak. Some have attributed the weakness to the pre-emptive nature
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2018 Investment Outlook. Inflation and Rates Pivotal.

8 years of recovery We have now had 8 years of economic growth since the financial crisis, with a little turbulence along the way, the European banking crisis 2011/2012, Taper Tantrum 2013, the China stock bubble in 2015. China has clearly matured and growth rates decelerated as one would expect from an economy of its
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8 years of caution and trepidation and we got a raging bull market. What will optimism bring? 2018

We have Italian elections in early March. The Germans still haven’t formed a government, and the AfD have 13% (the fictional TV series Berlin Station predicted a 13% vote for the fictional analogue PfD). All the data is good and synchronized. It really can’t get any better than this. Investors are more bullish than at
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Burnham Banks Q&A 2018 01

Markets did very well in 2017 and are off to a very strong start for 2018. Are you happy with conditions? The economy is as strong as it has ever been in the last 10 years. We’ve had bouts and pockets of strength but the current expansion is as broad as it is deep. Europe
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