HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

2018. Lower Returns. Target Returns Or Target Risk?

Financial markets began 2018 with a surge. Equity markets closed on or exceeded historical highs, credit spreads tightened and sovereign bonds sold off. Commodities rallied with emerging market currencies as the USD sank. The first week of 2018 appeared to indicate continued risk appetite and exuberant sentiment, with some good reasons and some cautions. We
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How To Invest. Investing For Idiots. And Smart People.

For most people, a simple investment strategy is best. Complex investment strategies with ambitious objectives, whether they are loss reduction, returns enhancement, volatility targeting, alpha generation, et al, are luxuries with associated cost. Here are some simple rules that investors of all levels of sophistication should follow.  Invest early and keep it simple. Take more
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China Should Join the TPP

The TPP was President Obama’s trade pact designed to be a counterbalance to the surging influence of China. It was designed to exclude China. When President Trump decided to turn away from TPP he provided China with a strategic opening. China has been building bridges as the US was busy building walls, or trying to
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Investing in 2018. Factors to consider.

A decade on from the Great Financial Crisis and all is well. Multiple rounds of extraordinary monetary policy campaigns have boosted asset prices and stabilized economies across the world. Intermittent turbulence from Europe (2011), Greece (2014), and Brexit (2016) have failed to derail the recovery. The political landscape is changing as well with the rise
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Trump Tax Plan. Chances and Consequences.

Sep 27, the Big Six presented a draft tax proposal representing President Trump’s tax plan. This is a long awaited piece of reform with high market impact. Trump Tax Plan: Proposed Tax Changes: Corporation Current Proposed Corporation Tax Rate 35.0% 20% Expense of Capital Investment Depreciated over time Immediately expensed Interest Expense Deductible Limited deductible
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