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A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

OPEC Is Managing The Oil Market Poorly. Oil Prices Likely To Rise.

OPEC is doing a terrible job of managing the oil price. The oil price prognosis depends on the time frame. In the very long run, oil will no longer be a viable fuel for a planet facing global warming. In the very long run, demand will disappear as cleaner, more sustainable sources of energy are
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Why Is Volatility So Low? Is It Complacency? No Its Not.

VIX, an indicator of implied volatility for the US stock market, has been chronically low, and surprisingly low given the geopolitical and economic concerns in the economy. Market consensus is that the US stock market is expensive and that growth may not be as strong as expected, especially if the expected fiscal stimulus policies of
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Leveraged Loans. Asian Private Banks’ Latest Blockbuster Product. Late To The Party… With Leverage.

Fears of rising interest rates have motivated Asian investors to buy leveraged loans. The first real demand from Asia for leveraged loans came around the Taper Tantrum in 2013. The asset class did as it was intended and protected capital while delivering a rather unexciting return (as it was supposed to do.) Over-investment in the
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Why The Slowdown in Q1 Economic Growth?

The following is a chart of the Average Yield for US Corporate Bonds. The period of early 2015 indicated by the white line coincides with a slowdown in US manufacturing PMIs. * chart data source Bloomberg Since mid June 2016 we have seen corporate bond yields rising as a result of rising US treasury yields, reflecting
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Growth Rebound Within The Limits of Trade War

From 2004 till 2008, US manufacturing (as measured by the NAPM PMI) has been weak, before diving in 2008. Since then it has rebounded and fallen into a range of 50 – 57, steady if not robust expansion. In China, manufacturing was flourishing pre 2008, after which it declined steadily from over 55 to below
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