HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

Fed Issues Floating Rate Notes. An Aside on the 30Y UST.

For the first time in 17 years, the US treasury will issue a new security, a Floating Rate Note. This will become a program of quarterly auctions.  Why are they doing this?   How does one get longer term funding at low interest rates? How does one attract investors to longer maturity assets with little
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QE Taper. For Real? Fed Interest Rate Policy.

  QE Taper, for real? The Fed is reducing UST purchases from 45 billion USD to 40 billion USD per month, a 11.1% reduction. It is reducing Agency MBS purchases from 40 billion USD to 35 billion USD, a -12.5% reduction. US treasury issuance is shrinking at roughly 18% YOY due to an increase in
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The US Consensus – Equities vs Bonds and QE Taper

  There has emerged a clear consensus about the outlook for US asset markets. While I am with the consensus for now, it is good practice to have an eye on the alternative view. With the tapering of QE, it has become established wisdom that equities will outperform bonds. Of course, there are many types
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Wait Worry

Complacency We began 2012 utterly dejected. Apart from the US, most regions from Europe to Asia to Latin America faced slowing growth. That said central bank pump priming managed to sustain global equity markets and 2012 turned out to be a good year for risk assets despite some mid year volatility. We began 2013 optimistic
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A slightly different style of investing:

  Traditional investing is all about asset allocation based on macro economic outlook and then drilling down to security selection. That’s a bit too fuzzy for my liking. Investing capital should be a more disciplined activity since it puts that capital at risk. The risk should always be well compensated by the prospect of returns.
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