HEDGED.BIZ

A look at economics, markets, finance and the irrational human being

The Japan Trade. Heading Higher

  The Japanese stock market is up some 40% year to date while the JPY has gone from 86 at the end of 2012 to 101 today. Wow. Is it too late to invest in Japan? I think not, but at the same time, it pays to be more circumspect.
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Market Outlook Review 4Q 2012 to 2Q 2013

  Our methodology is simple. Its getting it right that’s difficult. First of all, we observe, all the time, data, anecdotal evidence, trends, events and developments, everything. Then we postulate theses, what we think all the information evolving before us means. From these theses come predictions about the evolution of investable asset markets. This is
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'Abenomics'. This Time Is Different. Japanese Economic Recovery and Central Banking

‘Abenomics’ isn’t particularly innovative. Keynesian spending funded by central bank debt monetization was popularized by the Bank of Japan as an ineffective tool to raise output since before every Western Central bank and its accessories multiplied their balance sheets post 2008, with some surprising success. Japan has tried this before with little success, so is
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The Slowdown in the US Economy. A Temporary Pause.

The US economy is currently in a slowdown. How significant is this?  If we assume that trend growth for GDP is 4%, as was widely believed to be the case pre 2008, then 2.5% GDP growth would have indicated an economy failing to recover fully in its latest cycle, which would be quite negative. If,
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How Dependent Is The Economy On Low Interest Rates?

Corporate balance sheets have been significantly repaired since the crisis of 2008. On the other hand, sovereign balance sheets became and remain in poor condition. Most countries have addressed this problem by instituting programs of debt monetization with, as an associated bonus feature, artificially low interest rates across the relevant term structure.
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