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Ten Seconds Into The Future

A look at investments, hedge funds, economics, finance and the irrational economic human being
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10 Seconds Into The Future

The low inflation and low interest rate environment that we experienced in the last 20 years was only possible as inflation was exported away to low cost producer countries. This is equivalent to offshoring production capacity. It must therefore lead to a trade deficit, if it is successful. We know on hindsight that it has [...]

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What are investors worried about? There is a lot to worry about but there are usually two to three factors that really drive sentiment. The G20 summit has brought the relationship between China and the US into the spotlight. The concerns extended beyond currency wars and trade protectionism to strategic and geopolitical issues. The inflation [...]

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Purchasing power of money

Inflation and the internal purchasing power of money:   On the surface there appears to be no inflation in the US. 1.1% YOY inflation is neither too high nor too low. However, given the state of growth in the economy, central bank policy, fiscal strength or lack thereof, the risk of deflation has become a [...]

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US Treasuries Likely To Underperform

As the US increasingly moves closer to becoming a net exporter, by intent and also since the PBoC and BoJ are reducing vendor financing in the form of purchasing US treasuries, the US current account may move into surplus against China and Japan. This would mean a shortage of USD to recycle which would mean [...]

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Hermes

Last week end I was walking down Bond Street when I came to the Hermes shop. Nice clothes, nice bags, nice scarves, nice long queues at the till, and with a clientele that isn’t as predominantly Asian as LVMH. I’m not sure I would buy the clothes, JP Gaultier has just quit womenswear, the menswear [...]

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Background: In 2008, as investors fled in panic, and we ourselves had to raise cash on behalf of investors, we thought to ourselves: how would we manage our own money? Partner’s money. Assuming that everyone was thinking straight. The result of this experiment has been a model portfolio of hedge funds which we have tracked [...]

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Hedge Fund Performance Aug 2010

Hedge Fund Performance Aug 2010 Hedge Funds as a group have done poorly in 2010, yet they continue to outperform equities by a significant margin both in absolute terms as well as on a volatility adjusted basis.  Even so, why would an investor pay hedge fund management and performance fees for a paltry 1.65% YTD, [...]

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UCITS Time Line to 2010

UCITS Directive 1985: To harmonize the sale and marketing of ICS to retail investors. To create a single market and to impose a common set of investment parameters, restrictions and supervision. Ultimately failed its objectives. Failed to envisage the growth of complexity of CIS potentially structured within UCITS   UCITS II: Planned amendments and augmentations [...]

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The Case for Funds of Hedge Funds

 The performance of funds of hedge funds has apparently underperformed that of direct investments in hedge funds even after correcting for fees. Why is this?  Performance Table April 2003 to July 2010. A comparison of FOF, HF and a sample FOF *HFRXGL is an investable hedge fund index, HFRIFWI is the HFRI hedge fund index, [...]

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Equity Strategy and the Economy

  At the beginning of 2010 equity markets had benefited from almost a year of positive returns. At the beginning of 2009 it was clear that it would be fairly easy to make money in the market given the degree of pessimism in the market at the end of 2008 and how much equity markets [...]

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Disclosure

This blog is produced by Bryan Goh, Head of Due Diligence at First Avenue Partners. First Avenue Partners does not review or approve materials presented herein. By viewing or participating in discussion on this blog, you understand that the opinions expressed within do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of First Avenue Partners, but are the opinions of the author and individual participants. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Before investing, consider your investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. First Avenue Partners is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

About Bryan Goh

Greetings. I am responsible for hedge fund research and manager selection at First Avenue Partners LLP an alternative investments advisory firm based in London. Prior to this I managed the hedge fund portfolio of the OAKS Family Office in Singapore. I started my career in 1994 Singapore trading Asia Pacific equities and originating structured products. I later moved to London and managed equity and balanced funds in addition to originating alternative investment products from fund of hedge funds to real estate funds. My professional interests lie in the application of mathematical rigour to investment management and economic analysis. My hobbies include tennis, watch collecting and trail running, particularly along the banks of the Thames.

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