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Ten Seconds Into The Future

A look at investments, hedge funds, economics, finance and the irrational economic human being
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Archive for February, 2007

Two step economy:
Its quite clear anecdotally at least that the bifurcation of the world economy into rich and poor has accelerated in recent years. Wealth creation has accelerated among the rich while the rest of the population has failed to catch up. This has occurred both between countries as well as within countries. Globalisation has [...]

You play Solitaire. The card game. Its not important what game is being played. This is just an example and Solitaire is convenient. It has an element of skill and luck. The luck bit is how the pack has been shuffled and the initial set of cards dealt.
Let’s say that you have a strategy that [...]

Yesterday we looked at how hedge funds resembled banks. In fact they look pretty much like the result of the dismemberment of banks. Now lets look in a bit closer, at the capital structure of a hedge fund. To a corporate treasurer, a hedge fund would look like a very strange animal. The hedge fund [...]

Are hedge funds banks? Some people seem to think so. In particular a research report, excerpts of which are available at http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2007/02/07/2365/the-great-unwind-is-coming-warn-dresdner-pair/ , draw comparisons between Citadel and Deutsche Bank’s investment banking division. The similarities are remarkable. For a long time there has been a preference for hedge funds set up by proprietary traders as [...]

We are no better off letting the weatherman predict the economy and the economist predict the weather… having said that, let us press on.Stock selection:
Stock selection strategies and strategies that profit from an increase in specific risk will find more opportunities this year. The withdrawal of liquidity by central banks of US, UK, the Eurozone [...]

Hedge funds are secretive, or private businesses who shun the limelight. Their success and sometimes spectacular implosions make them excellent news material and often a target for sensationalists. They are also excellent scapegoats. Here is an example of how this can be done:
Assume now that you are the ruler of a small emerging market economy. [...]

 

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Disclosure

This blog is produced by Bryan Goh, Head of Due Diligence at First Avenue Partners. First Avenue Partners does not review or approve materials presented herein. By viewing or participating in discussion on this blog, you understand that the opinions expressed within do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of First Avenue Partners, but are the opinions of the author and individual participants. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Before investing, consider your investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. First Avenue Partners is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

About Bryan Goh

Greetings. I am responsible for hedge fund research and manager selection at First Avenue Partners LLP an alternative investments advisory firm based in London. Prior to this I managed the hedge fund portfolio of the OAKS Family Office in Singapore. I started my career in 1994 Singapore trading Asia Pacific equities and originating structured products. I later moved to London and managed equity and balanced funds in addition to originating alternative investment products from fund of hedge funds to real estate funds. My professional interests lie in the application of mathematical rigour to investment management and economic analysis. My hobbies include tennis, watch collecting and trail running, particularly along the banks of the Thames.

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