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Ten Seconds Into The Future

A look at investments, hedge funds, economics, finance and the irrational economic human being
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Archive for May, 2008

Strategies for 2008

Lets see how wrong I can be in a year’s time:
US:
Distressed will do poorly relative to expectations. Too much money chasing too few defaults.
Risk arb to do well. Dispersion of valuations and financial strength, cross border opportunities for emerging market acquirers. Currency effects, cheapening USD makes US companies interesting targets.
Equity long short. Hard to generalize [...]

Oil and Gold

Forecasting is a losing game. Forecasting commodity prices is a particularly risk losing game. So here goes.
The price of oil in gold has traded in a range 0.04 – 0.06 from 1989 to 1999. In 1999 it rises to a new range. 0.08 – 0.12 breaking to 0.15 in 2005. Currently the ratio trades at [...]

 

May 2008
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Disclosure

This blog is produced by Bryan Goh, Head of Due Diligence at First Avenue Partners. First Avenue Partners does not review or approve materials presented herein. By viewing or participating in discussion on this blog, you understand that the opinions expressed within do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of First Avenue Partners, but are the opinions of the author and individual participants. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Before investing, consider your investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. First Avenue Partners is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

About Bryan Goh

Greetings. I am responsible for hedge fund research and manager selection at First Avenue Partners LLP an alternative investments advisory firm based in London. Prior to this I managed the hedge fund portfolio of the OAKS Family Office in Singapore. I started my career in 1994 Singapore trading Asia Pacific equities and originating structured products. I later moved to London and managed equity and balanced funds in addition to originating alternative investment products from fund of hedge funds to real estate funds. My professional interests lie in the application of mathematical rigour to investment management and economic analysis. My hobbies include tennis, watch collecting and trail running, particularly along the banks of the Thames.

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