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Lets see how wrong I can be in a year’s time:
US:
Distressed will do poorly relative to expectations. Too much money chasing too few defaults.
Risk arb to do well. Dispersion of valuations and financial strength, cross border opportunities for emerging market acquirers. Currency effects, cheapening USD makes US companies interesting targets.
Equity long short. Hard to generalize [...]
Forecasting is a losing game. Forecasting commodity prices is a particularly risk losing game. So here goes.
The price of oil in gold has traded in a range 0.04 – 0.06 from 1989 to 1999. In 1999 it rises to a new range. 0.08 – 0.12 breaking to 0.15 in 2005. Currently the ratio trades at [...]