Economic data is pointing towards a worsening global recession in 2009. The scale of the slowdown in economic activity, the damage done to the banking system, the losses accumulated in residential real estate and the impairment of household balance sheets call for extraordinary policy measures. A more or less global though not entirely concerted policy [...]

In my post of 11 Aug 2008, I said that recession was the greater concern over inflation, at a time when US CPI was 5% and PPI 14%. Today there are fears of deflation. Looking forward, the risk to inflation is on the upside.
In late 2006, the oil price was in the range 60 – [...]

All the bail outs and helpful measures that governments are undertaking to reinvigorate the economy amount to a transfer from the government to the private sector.
Government balance sheets must suffer. Corporate balance sheets must improve. Short US Treasuries and treasuries of governments that are already running deficits, thus Europe and the UK, and Long their [...]