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Ten Seconds Into The Future

A look at investments, hedge funds, economics, finance and the irrational economic human being
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Archive for April 14th, 2009

Retail Sales, PPI and Equity Markets

14 April. Retail sales numbers in the US disappointed. Retail sales less autos shrank 0.9% against a forecast of 0.0% and a prior of +0.7%. Advance retail sales were -1.1% versus a forecast +0.3% and a prior -0.1%.
PPI numbers were also reported. PPI Ex Food and Energy rose 3.8% YOY versus a forecast 4.0%. The [...]

Black Swans? Silkie Chickens!

Black Swans?

Whatever you do, whatever they do, whoever they are, whoever you are, economic cycles will survive. See my article of 2 April 2008. The path of economic growth and the role of central planners.

People learn from their mistakes. The next mistakes they make will be fiendishly novel and clever.

If it is breakable it will [...]

 

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Disclosure

This blog is produced by Bryan Goh, Head of Due Diligence at First Avenue Partners. First Avenue Partners does not review or approve materials presented herein. By viewing or participating in discussion on this blog, you understand that the opinions expressed within do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of First Avenue Partners, but are the opinions of the author and individual participants. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Before investing, consider your investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. First Avenue Partners is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

About Bryan Goh

Greetings. I am responsible for hedge fund research and manager selection at First Avenue Partners LLP an alternative investments advisory firm based in London. Prior to this I managed the hedge fund portfolio of the OAKS Family Office in Singapore. I started my career in 1994 Singapore trading Asia Pacific equities and originating structured products. I later moved to London and managed equity and balanced funds in addition to originating alternative investment products from fund of hedge funds to real estate funds. My professional interests lie in the application of mathematical rigour to investment management and economic analysis. My hobbies include tennis, watch collecting and trail running, particularly along the banks of the Thames.

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