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Ten Seconds Into The Future

A look at investments, hedge funds, economics, finance and the irrational economic human being
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Archive for July, 2009

A Return To Boom and Bust

Does the printing of money by central banks inevitably lead to inflation?
 
Is there good inflation and bad inflation?
 
Quantitative easing is now underway in most developed countries in some form or other, most notably in the US, UK and Europe. It hopes to make up for the decline in transactions for a given stock of money [...]

Great Leaders

The mark of a great leader is that he or she leaves a company, country or other organization strong enough to stand on its own without their continuing influence or indeed choice of successor. Redundancy is the ultimate test.
Some potentially great leaders do in fact succeed in this respect, yet fail to recognize their own [...]

Inflation Deflation Trades

Inflation/deflation doesn’t turn on a dime. Inflation/deflation expectations turn on a dime.
 
Time to put on curve flatteners in US 2s and 10s, and 2s and 5s.

Japanese Beer Wars

In a market known for measured and deliberate and more often than not friendly M&A, the merger between Kirin and Suntory is an interesting transaction. The Kirin Suntory deal is by no means hostile but it is a merger of rivals. The merger if consummated will create the fifth largest food and beverage company in [...]

The fundamental picture:
The second quarter of 2009 witnessed a continuation of the rally in all risky assets from equities to credit to commodities and energy to illiquid Asian physical real estate. On the back of this reversal of the acute risk aversion that plagued the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, [...]

Here is a chart of the dispersion of hedge fund returns across strategies as classified by Hedge Fund Research. It is the simple standard deviation of the monthly returns across the 18 strategy indices compiled by HFR. What it shows is a clear compression of dispersion from Jan 2000 to Jan 2004 where it troughs. [...]

Dear Roundtripper,
 
A very interesting post. (Stop manipulating the (US) stock market!) Go back to March 2009, the beginning of the current relief rally, and you may recall that just a week prior to triple witching, a slew of good news regarding further bail outs coincided with what could well have been a significant negative gamma [...]

 

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Disclosure

This blog is produced by Bryan Goh, Head of Due Diligence at First Avenue Partners. First Avenue Partners does not review or approve materials presented herein. By viewing or participating in discussion on this blog, you understand that the opinions expressed within do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of First Avenue Partners, but are the opinions of the author and individual participants. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other instrument. Before investing, consider your investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Any purchase or sale activity in any securities instrument should be based upon your own analysis and conclusions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. First Avenue Partners is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority.

About Bryan Goh

Greetings. I am responsible for hedge fund research and manager selection at First Avenue Partners LLP an alternative investments advisory firm based in London. Prior to this I managed the hedge fund portfolio of the OAKS Family Office in Singapore. I started my career in 1994 Singapore trading Asia Pacific equities and originating structured products. I later moved to London and managed equity and balanced funds in addition to originating alternative investment products from fund of hedge funds to real estate funds. My professional interests lie in the application of mathematical rigour to investment management and economic analysis. My hobbies include tennis, watch collecting and trail running, particularly along the banks of the Thames.

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