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23 Feb
Posted by: Bryan Goh in: Uncategorized
The credit quality of sovereign debt is the subject of current scrutiny and debate.
The business of government is a complex one with multiple objectives and indeed philosophies.
Some believe that governments are inherently inefficient and therefore should have their mandate clearly defined and limited. Others see government as an arbiter that corrects market imperfections.
Unable to deal [...]
Want to find the best job in the world? Here’s how to think about it.
You want a job with maximum return to your skills as possible. You therefore want maximum return on equity, per person, in your job or field.
You really couldn’t give a toss what the return on assets is. Return on assets has [...]
Its not fundamentals that are driving equity markets and responsible for the current weakness. Fundamentals were bound to weaken once the first round of inventory restocking had taken place and the benefits of cost cutting had been realized. The world economy is still weak, but in a recovery phase, and conditions have returned to normal, [...]
Debt levels as a percentage of GDP:
Having attended various lectures by academics, regulators, central bankers and investors in the opening weeks of 2010, and being surprised at the diversity of views among the experts, I thought to look back at the 2008 credit crisis in a bit more detail to see what I missed. I tried to look back at the [...]
The equity markets have been weak on the sovereign risk scares in Greece, Spain and Portugal. As much as this, employment numbers in the US have now come in below forecast in the last 4 weeks.
People out of work tend to stop their efforts in December as the year comes to a close because they [...]
The US owes China 1 trillion bucks. Is it any surprise that China wants a stronger USD?
The US government is broke.
China cannot buy CDS protection on the US. It would have to buy it from a strong credit. Which counterparty could write 1 trillion USD worth of protection? Well, China, but that’s stupid. The EU? China [...]
There is an opportunity here to eschew heavy handed regulation.
The public are clearly incensed at the behaviour of the bankers and prop traders. The people are disappointed at the level of diligence and care that their bankers have applied in the conduct of their businesses.
The opportunity exists today for regulators to demand nothing more than [...]
In the latter part of 2008, the value of world trade plummeted as availability of trade finance evaporated at the same time that global economic growth slowed drastically. 2008 saw a reversal of globalization as the developed world consumer retrenched after a protracted period of operating too low a savings rate accumulating unsustainable levels of [...]
January 2010 was a bad month for investing. Markets fell from equities to credit to commodities. The USD was strong by default. Fears of a sovereign default by Greece was blamed for the general de-risking.
Markets fluctuate. The almost constant rise of risky assets since March 2008 has muted volatility and confounded the sceptics and perma-bears. [...]